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Rating Woes, August Blahs Threaten 'Tropic Thunder' Storm at Box Office
Posted by STV at 6:30 AM on July 31, 2008
While we refuse to believe Nielsen actually spent money to discover that R-ratings hinder comedies more than horror films, the results of its recent survey dovetail interestingly today with a companion piece about Tropic Thunder's potential for August domination. We've seen Tropic and can vouch for it living up to most of its hype, from Tom Cruise's sociopath studio boss to Robert Downey Jr.'s otherworldly, meta-Method blackface turn. But rating and timing are everything, as always, prompting The Hollywood Reporter to foretell a relatively floppy future:
Produced for an estimated $90 million, Tropic also has been supported by $30 million or more in advertising, a media campaign roughly comparable to other R-rated comedies. Meantime, promo appearances by its ensemble cast have included the three amigos showing up in person on American Idol, the MTV Movie Awards, by video at Comic-Con and at Cinema Expo. ...
All the humor-laced promos, combined with sustained tubthumping by publicists, have lent the air of an event film that's out of proportion to any reasonable earnings prospects.
Superbad, an R-rated comedy released last Aug. 17, opened to $33.1 million and fetched $121.5 million domestically. The Apatow-produced comedy bowed a week after action comedy Rush Hour 3 debuted with $49.1 million.
In this case, Tropic opens a week after Pineapple Express, another gleefully naughty R-rated comedy from Team Apatow. So we've got one stoner flick, one Hollywood satire, both essentially unpromotable by conventional prime-time standards. What could the difference between that and a steaming Ratner mean for Paramount/DreamWorks? Likely nothing on opening weekend, when Tropic could ride to $45 million on Cruise and Downey buzz. After that, though? Watch out for a gruesome bout of box-office cannibalism, interrupted every few minutes by innocent bystanders requesting two more tickets for The Dark Knight. The horror, indeed.
Comments (AU Comments · US Comments)
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Breadbowl
Posted 6:55 AM 31/7/08
I saw the trailer for Step Brothers and thought it contained everything remotely funny... I saw the trailer for Tropic Thunder and thought there will be more...
Breadbowl
JudgeFudge
Posted 6:41 AM 31/7/08
My guess is that Tropic Thunder might perform domestically like Superbad did last year, when all is said and done...
But, no matter how it performs in the states, this thing is going to be a monsterific juggernaut overseas. Jack Black! Ben Stiller! Tom Cruise! Iron Man! all in one movie together!? Fuck the olympics. Everybody else in the world is going to want to see this thing.
JudgeFudge
heidiho
Posted 7:40 AM 31/7/08
Oh, I'll be there, and so will a lot of people I know. I think it will do pretty damn well.
I cannot get myself excited about Pineapple Express no matter how hard I try. Just don't care.
heidiho
Fry_Bread_Power
Posted 7:23 AM 31/7/08
Robert Downey Jr. in the poster alone is enough to get my behind in a seat, so we know that Tropic Thunder will make atleast $10.50.
Fry_Bread_Power
Douglas Reinhardt
Posted 8:42 AM 31/7/08
Word of mouth and people spoiling the already spoiled cameos will bring people back to Tropic Thunder again and again. I mean, I want to see it again.
Douglas Reinhardt
Huge Tracts of Land
Posted 8:33 AM 31/7/08
(They should have released Pineapple Express on 4/20. People already ditch work/school/life in droves on that day and what better activity than to blaze on the roof of the Arclight then catch a matinee of this...)
Huge Tracts of Land
"Good" Crazy...
Posted 9:45 AM 31/7/08
(between tokes) Pineapple what?
(after the tokes) Ok, let's not talk fruit and watch Tropic Thunder.
"It's gold I tell ya, GOLD!"
"Good" Crazy...
Cam/ron
Posted 9:58 AM 31/7/08
"Pineapple" actually sounds like a groundbreaking movie. Just think, it's a Hollywood comedy about smoking marijuana. Soon we'll see movies where there could be stoned Mexicans driving around LA, or a movie about stoned Texan teens during their last day of school in the 70's, or a movie about Dave Chappelle discovering a new marijuana species that can lift you off the ground. It's money in the bank.
Cam/ron
spikespeigel
Posted 8:18 AM 1/8/08
RDJ is the reason I'm going to see Tropic. Everything else? Not so much.
spikespeigel
MagentaGebian
Posted 11:04 AM 31/7/08
I have seen both StepBrothers and Tropic Thunder... Both are SO FAR past inappropriate they are excellent. StepBrothers is a laugh-all-the-way-through-it movie, and Tropic Thunder is just a great story with big laughs consistently throughout. Either way, I saw both w/ test audiences, and the whole crowds were always leaving w/ big smiles and lots of chatter... I think these movies (and Pineapple Express) will do well with the word of mouth if not by their pre-marketing merits alone.
MagentaGebian