With the major studios about to release roughly five-thousand big-budget sequels (among them Pirates 3, Shrek the Third, Harry Potter the Fifth, Ocean's 13, Die Hard 4, and, of course, Fantastic Four 2: We'll Just Hire 'Into the Blue' If We Want to Ogle Jessica Alba) into a marketplace so overcrowded with product that cinema lobbies will be clogged like the streets of Calcutta from May until August, at least one "sure thing" is bound to bring in a disappointingâ„¢ number and have its executives contemplating a suicide pact rather than suffer the humiliation of having to explain what went wrong to the media. Since Spider-Man 3 might already be The Most Expensive Movie Ever Made, Slate wonders if it might be this season's little web-slinging underachiever even if it shatters Aquaman's opening weekend record:

A distribution executive at a studio that has nothing to do with any of the films just mentioned predicts that Spider-Man will open huge, at about $US120 million. The film is an event with a following, and there is nothing in theatres right now that anyone wants to see, according to this executive. But the question is the strength of the movie's eight legs. "Shrek and Pirates have broad, broad appeal," this executive says. "With Spider-Man, the word is out that it's dark." Taking into account the movie's cost, our veteran believes that could mean trouble.

 

Other arguments may support that view: The second Shrek did massively better than the first ($US920 million worldwide versus $US484 million). The second Pirates also outdid the original, taking in more than $US1 billion versus $US654 million. But Spider-Man 2 grossed about $US40 million less than the first installment, pulling in $US783 million.

Of course, Spider-Man is as much an multiplatform industry as it is a blockbuster movie franchise, and should the flagship continue the above-referenced pattern of diminishing returns, we're sure any shortfall will eventually be more than made up on Broadway, where Hugh Jackman's interpretation of the beloved character is sure to bring in millions of fans who had no interest in the superhero before he decided to defeat his enemies with the power of showtunes.

UPDATE: And right on cue, Nikki Finke reports that the Asian grosses for Spidey 3 are already outpacing the first and second installments.

• Let the Games Begin [Slate]
• Previously: Breaking! 'Spider-Man' Sequel Absurdly Expensive

Tags: box office | spider-man